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AEI has released the PRISMS statistics for October 2012.
English Australia has produced a detailed report which provides an ELICOS sector perspective in analysing the statistics provided for YTD 2012 compared with previous years.
Trends for the ELICOS sector are proving difficult to identify. Whilst the level of YTD commencements has stabilised, finally seeming to have brought to an end the fall that started in September 2009, each month tells a totally different story. The sector has seen 5 months of growth over 2012 to date, but 5 months of decline. Two of the growth months showed very strong growth (April and July were both up +29%), but both were followed by months of decline. September showed growth of +8% but followed a decline of -7% in August. The fact that October continues the growth trend (with 6.0%) and that we have now had three consecutive months where the number of students enrolled in ELICOS courses is higher than the same month last year means that there are strong indications that the decline may have now bottomed out.
Member Colleges and Corporate Affiliates can login to view the report on the English Australia website at:
COLLEGES » Services & Resources » Statistics/Research »
AEI Data - October 2012 - English Australia Analysis
[Please keep in mind that these statistics only refer to student visa holders and therefore underestimate the total number of students from many countries that attract large numbers of ELICOS students on other types of visas such as Visitor Visas or Working Holiday Visas. Colleges should refer to the annual English Australia ELICOS Industry Report for more detailed data regarding these other students. Nevertheless the AEI statistics are broken down by eCoE and therefore accurately reflect the number of student visa holders commencing courses in the ELICOS sector.]
Key Points
- All sectors except ELICOS show a decline in the number of commencements for YTD 2012, with a resulting overall decline across all sectors of -6.5%.
- YTD 2012 commencement figures show a stabilisation of the decline for the ELICOS sector that started towards the end of 2009 and has continued since. ELICOS student visa commencements have grown by +1.6% for YTD 2012 to produce a total of 64,841 commencements. This growth represents 1,020 more commencing students than YTD 2011. When compared with the peak year of 2009, however, the sector still shows a massive decline of -31%, representing 29,113 fewer commencing students.
- July showed strong growth of +29%, and although August returned to decline (-7.2%), September again showed growth with +8.6% and this continued in October with growth of +6.0%, with 6 of the top 10 source countries showing growth for the month. October showed the most commencements for any month so far this year.
- In both 2010 and 2011 all of the top 10 countries experienced declining numbers. YTD 2012 figures show declines from 5 countries in the top 10: China, South Korea, Taiwan, Brazil, Saudi Arabia; and growth from 5 countries: Spain, Colombia, Thailand, Vietnam, Japan. Spain is included in the top 10 for the first time.
- Colombia showed the strongest growth of any country (students) with an additional 1,101 students.
- China showed the strongest decline of any country (students) with 1,147 fewer students.
- Tasmania showed the strongest % decline whilst South Australia showed the greatest decline in numbers of students (-135).
- The strongest % growth was experienced by NT, however the strongest growth in numbers of students was experienced by Victoria (+888).
- The average # of students enrolled at any one time in 2010 was down to 28,444, with 2011 dropping even further, down to 23,676. At YTD 2012, the average # of students enrolled is 22,071.
- October 2012 shows a head count of 23,915, 2,153 more than October 2011 but 11,695 fewer than October in the peak year of 2009. The last three months have all shown more students in ELICOS classes than the same months in 2011 – although still below 2010 numbers. This may be signs of a recovery for the sector.
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