YTD February data shows slowdown in growth trend for ELICOS

The YTD February 2015 statistics released last Friday by the Australian Government Department of Education and Training show the return to growth for ELICOS slowing, but stabilising at a new high level.

Whilst YTD 2015 figures show all sectors experiencing growth in the number of commencements (with a resulting overall growth across all sectors of +9%), this data should be interpreted with caution as most Higher Education and VET commencements for first semester typically take place over a 3 month period across January, February and March.

The monthly data is, however, meaningful for ELICOS.  The level of ELICOS commencements in the first two months of 2015 grew at a lower rate than recent trends, however consolidates the new peak levels recorded in 2014.  The YTD growth rate of +4.5% (a total of 20,219 commencements compared with 19,349 for 2014) is only slightly lower than the YTD Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of +6.6% over the five year period since 2011.

There are concerns that 3 of the top 10 countries show declining numbers (Brazil, Vietnam and South Korea).  Although this is seen as a natural adjustment for Vietnam which had previous seen growth at unprecedented levels, the declines for Brazil and South Korea are a worrying continuation of a long-term trend reflected in the fact that they are the only two countries in the top 15 to show a minus CAGR over the five year period since 2011.

It should also be noted, however, that whilst the top 10 countries together as a group show growth of +3%, a stronger level of growth (+10%) is being experienced from countries other than the top 10 – a positive development in terms of diversification of nationalities.

3 of the top 10 countries continue to grow strongly and have experienced their best YTD ELICOS commencement figures ever: Colombia, Thailand and Taiwan.  4 more countries in the top 20 have also experienced their best YTD ELICOS commencement figures ever: Italy, Spain, Malaysia and Pakistan.

China (+483), India (+363) and Taiwan (+126) contributed the largest numbers of additional ELICOS students compared with YTD 2014.

Two regions have recorded their highest level of YTD ELICOS commencement figures ever: Americas and Southern & Eastern Europe.

Click here to view the 1-page Summary provided by the Australian Government Department of Education and Training.

English Australia Member Colleges and Corporate Affiliates can access a detailed analysis of the data from an ELICOS perspective by logging in to the following section of the English Australia website:

COLLEGES » Services & Resources » Statistics/Research

Agents can access a summary of the key trends plus the ELICOS commencements for the top 100 ELICOS source countries by logging in to the following section of the English Australia website:

AGENTS » Agent Resources

[Note: The data referred to in this report only relates to student visa holders. Last year 38% of all ELICOS students came to Australia on another visa.  This data is captured in a separate annual report released in May/June each year which provides a more comprehensive view of trends for the sector.]